A number of fundamental issues … may have significant ramifications on how the Information Age unfolds: surveillance and public safety vs. privacy through encryption and anonymity, censorship vs. free expression, more control vs. a decentralized anarchy of information. On the surface, some of these issues appear fairly clear-cut. Unauthorized access to computers is already covered by legislation. Cases of libel or copyright violations are easily settled by the courts under current laws, provided that one can find who is responsible for such transgressions. Yet even seemingly clear-cut issues can have mind-twisting digital implications.
Predictor: Harris, Blake
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for the journal Government Technology, Blake Harris takes a look at the future of the Internet. Harris writes: ”A number of fundamental issues … may have significant ramifications on how the Information Age unfolds: surveillance and public safety vs. privacy through encryption and anonymity, censorship vs. free expression, more control vs. a decentralized anarchy of information. On the surface, some of these issues appear fairly clear-cut. Unauthorized access to computers is already covered by legislation. Cases of libel or copyright violations are easily settled by the courts under current laws, provided that one can find who is responsible for such transgressions. Yet even seemingly clear-cut issues can have mind-twisting digital implications. Paul Saffo, director of the Institute for the Future, predicts the oblivion of print. If more and more books only exist in electronic format, it only makes economic sense that public lending libraries would operate in cyberspace – except how does anyone enforce copyrights and ensure that only the paid-for copy of the book is in circulation? And if people can download a book from a library and then keep a copy for themselves at home, what does this do to the retail book trade, not to mention authors’ royalties that make it economically viable to produce books in the first place? More than a decade ago, a classic study by Ithiel de Sola Pool called ‘Technologies of Freedom’ summed up what must be the principle concern in all debates about regulation and control of cyberspace. ‘In future society the norms that govern information and communications will be even more crucial than in the past,’ Pool wrote. ‘The onus is on us to determine whether free societies in the 21st century will conduct electronic communication under the conditions of freedom established for the domain of print through centuries of struggle, or whether that great achievement will become lost in a confusion about the new technologies.'”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Government Technology
Title, headline, chapter name: Cyberspace 2020
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.govtech.net/publications/gt/1995/oct/cyberspa.phtml
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney