People who want it to be an escapist thing … will be disappointed. Everybody else will be having these amazing experiences … It’s only in its dynamic quality that virtual reality becomes real. There might be some people who veg out in it, but I just think that’s extremely unlikely … If, 20 years from now, what’s going on in VR is just an amplified version of what goes on in television sets, it would be an overall failure.
Predictor: Lanier, Jaron
Prediction, in context:In a 1990 article for Everyday Magazine, Steven Levy talks with virtual-reality entrepreneur Jaron Lanier. Levy writes:”Lanier wants to see virtual reality develop on the model of the telephone, not the television. The telephone is useless on its own; people make it worth using. Using virtual reality, people will call up unexpected creative resources. They’ll do this by changing their environments to reflect what they think and feel. In Lanier’s visions, worlds will be easily made and instantly changeable. If you feel down, your world might be tinged with blue. To express anger, you might turn into a roaring tiger. Since there’s no limit to what you can express, your options are infinite. Lanier is convinced that once people realize how exciting it is to create new worlds, or refine the worlds they find themselves in, few will want to be virtual couch potatoes. ‘People aren’t aware that creativity is a fundamental and universal human need,’ he says. ‘The people who want it to be an escapist thing … will be disappointed. Everybody else will be having these amazing experiences … It’s only in its dynamic quality that virtual reality becomes real. There might be some people who veg out in it, but I just think that’s extremely unlikely … If, 20 years from now, what’s going on in VR is just an amplified version of what goes on in television sets, it would be an overall failure.'”
Biography:Jaron Lanier was a pioneer of virtual reality and founder and former CEO of VPL. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1990
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Virtual Reality
Name of publication: Everyday Magazine
Title, headline, chapter name: Different Worlds: Electronic Magic Can Take Us There
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6b928abf4260c0e1ddd2b0818d3e870b&_docnum=24&wchp=dGLbVzb-lSlzV&_md5=b9da478965ccfbf85a3f4d83b138a4dc
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lightburn, Ellie