Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Cryptography offers the possibility for absolute communications protection or privacy that is not available to us in any other area of our lives. Our physical beings are constantly at risk, and our premises, cars, safes, and lockers can be illegally broken into or lawfully searched. We live with this risk and indeed benefit from it whenever we lock ourselves out of our homes, cars, and so forth. It is unclear that we need an absolute level of protection or privacy for our communications surpassing the levels in other areas of our lives. Indeed, our speech in many regards and area is already subject to balanced regulation (e.g., slander, libel, obscenity, falsely yelling “fire” in a theater) … If companies themselves do not regulate cryptography, their employees would have a means of transmitting company secrets outside the company with impunity and without detection.

Predictor: Denning, Dorothy

Prediction, in context:

The 1997 book “Computers, Ethics, and Society,” edited by M. David Ermann, Mary B. Williams and Michele S. Shauf, carries a reprint of the 1993 Communications of the ACM article “Digital Communications Must Not Weaken Law Enforcement” by Dorothy Denning. Denning argues that digital communications should be designed to allow tapping by the FBI. She writes: ”Viewed narrowly, cryptography offers the possibility for absolute communications protection or privacy that is not available to us in any other area of our lives. Our physical beings are constantly at risk, and our premises, cars, safes, and lockers can be illegally broken into or lawfully searched. We live with this risk and indeed benefit from it whenever we lock ourselves out of our homes, cars, and so forth. It is unclear that we need an absolute level of protection or privacy for our communications surpassing the levels in other areas of our lives. Indeed, our speech in many regards and area is already subject to balanced regulation (e.g., slander, libel, obscenity, falsely yelling ‘fire’ in a theater) … If companies themselves do not regulate cryptography, their employees would have a means of transmitting company secrets outside the company with impunity and without detection.”

Biography:

Dorothy Denning was a professor and chair of Computer Science at Georgetown University in the 1990s, by which time she had been in the field of computer security and cryptography for two decades. Previous to her arrival at GU, she worked at Digital Equipment Corporation, SRI International and Purdue University. Her books include “Cryptography and Data Security” and “Information Warfare and Security.” She authored many Internet research studies. She was the first president of the International Association for Cryptologic Research. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1993

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Computers, Ethics, and Society (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Communication Must Not Weaken Law Enforcement

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 256, 257

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne