The digital convergence is a crock. An interesting crock, a press-release-making and share-price-hiking crock, a great source material for hooked-in politicians crock, a cocktail discussion hipness-major-bonus-points crock, but a crock nonetheless. The need for a “digital convergence” can be buried with a hundred different shovels.
Predictor: Hulley, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Computer-Mediated Communication titled “Digital Convergence is a Crock,” Bill Hulley, then a venture capitalist and general partner of Fostin Capital Partners, says:”When you sit down and take a close look, you will find the digital convergence, like its less reputable astrological cousin, is fun to talk about as long as you understand that it means nothing in the physical universe that you inhabit. If, however, you start to believe the convergence is a real, happening event that will cause real happening things in this world, you will make decisions about how you work, live, invest and play that will cost you untold grief in the years to come. Because the digital convergence is a crock. An interesting crock, a press-release-making and share-price-hiking crock, a great source material for hooked-in politicians crock, a cocktail discussion hipness-major-bonus-points crock, but a crock nonetheless. The need for a ‘digital convergence’ can be buried with a hundred different shovels but let me toss you three of the handiest ones: The customers don’t care. The target industries are structurally incompatible. The capital markets won’t pay for it to happen … In trial after trial, customers don’t use the product. They don’t like it, they don’t care about it even when they get it for free, and they certainly don’t have an interest in paying for it even though they have money to waste on such stuff.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication
Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Convergence is a Crock
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/aug/converge.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry