People watch television, they talk on the phone, they work on their computers. The tools and toys they have for each of these tasks work just fine, so why would they change?
Predictor: Hulley, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Computer-Mediated Communication titled “Digital Convergence is a Crock,” Bill Hulley, then a venture capitalist and general partner of Fostin Capital Partners, says:”[People] don’t want [interactive digital whiz-bang content] for good reason – what they use now works. People watch television, they talk on the phone, they work on their computers. The tools and toys they have for each of these tasks work just fine, so why would they change? You know, a telephone does what it does pretty well, has a well understood user interface and is amazingly reliable. When I compare that to Windows NT, Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) starts to look pretty good well into the 21st century.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication
Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Convergence is a Crock
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/aug/converge.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry