Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

The opposite of presence to me is virtuality, simulation. I see the polarity as central to our time … We just breathe in technology these days – the whole panoply, everything from phones to answering machines to e-mail to computers to fax. It’s not that these things are necessarily evils. But we don’t have the chance to grow into them, to learn their meaning and their measure and their shortcomings, because they are coming at such a rate and in such multiples.

Predictor: Birkerts, Sven

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Harvey Blume interviews Sven Birkerts, author of “The Gutenberg Elegies: The Fate of Reading in an Electronic Age.” Birkerts fears new technology is bringing us convenience in exchange for the loss of our souls. Following is a portion of the interview: ”Wired: You have staked out a radically antidigital, antiwired position. What do you fear most about the new communications technology?” ”Birkerts: The erosion of presence, the loss of immediacy of engagement, whether person-to-person or person-to-environment. The opposite of presence to me is virtuality, simulation. I see the polarity as central to our time.” ”Wired: When did the changes that worry you begin?” ”Birkerts: We’ve had labor-saving devices and inventions all along, of course. What’s happening now is that the innovation is coming at a more rapid pace than ever before. We had the telephone, already a great mediation device, both imposing and reducing distance between people. We got used to it. TV came along, causing a kind of crisis in the culture. We accommodated. But at some point in the last 20 years, these things came at such a rate we gave up on accommodation and simply began to accept. We just breathe in technology these days – the whole panoply, everything from phones to answering machines to e-mail to computers to fax. It’s not that these things are necessarily evils. But we don’t have the chance to grow into them, to learn their meaning and their measure and their shortcomings, because they are coming at such a rate and in such multiples.”

Biography:

Sven Birkerts was the author of “The Gutenberg Elegies: The Fate of Reading in an Electronic Age.” Birkerts feared new technology was bringing us convenience in exchange for the loss of our souls. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Refusnik: Sven Birkerts Believes that Technology is Leeching the Spiritual Out of Human Experience

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/refusnik_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney