You don’t need much human factors expertise to predict that a human being cannot keep track of 50 or more different user IDs and passwords, and yet it is not at all uncommon for users to have at least 50 sites on their hotlist. Users will be writing down their passwords (leading to complete loss of security) and they will rebel against the time wasted in finding their user ID and password every time they follow a link to a different site. The user’s computer will have to negotiate registration information with the remote site automatically, based on user-controlled preferences for what demographic data to reveal to whom.
Predictor: Nielsen, Jakob
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 column on online publishing, Jakob Nielsen writes:”Many Web sites currently perform user authentication by registration where the user has to select a user ID and a password and enter them every time he or she accesses the site. User registration will have to die. You don’t need much human factors expertise to predict that a human being cannot keep track of 50 or more different user IDs and passwords, and yet it is not at all uncommon for users to have at least 50 sites on their hotlist. Users will be writing down their passwords (leading to complete loss of security) and they will rebel against the time wasted in finding their user ID and password every time they follow a link to a different site. The user’s computer will have to negotiate registration information with the remote site automatically, based on user-controlled preferences for what demographic data to reveal to whom.”
Biography:Jakob Nielsen labeled himself as an “Internet User Advocate” and built a reputation as a speaker and writer in that area. He co-founded the Nielsen Norman Group with Donald A. Norman (a former VP of research at Apple Computer). In the early 1990s, he was an engineer at Sun Microsystems. He invented and patented a number of Internet usability methods. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: August 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Alertbox
Title, headline, chapter name: Directions for Online Publishing
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/9508.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney