Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Net commerce can offer much lower prices than physical stores and even stores selling through catalogs, because the core marketing and transaction costs are so much less … Directories are one of the few site-promotion strategies that don’t cost much, if anything, and will persuade people to start shopping in cyberspace in the first place. That’s why directory development is worth watching closely.

Predictor: Hapgood, Fred

Prediction, in context:

In this 1995 Internet chat-group discussion, Fred Hapgood suggests that shopping directories would be a cheap way to promote businesses on the Internet. He writes: ”You could argue that good online directories are more important for the development of Net commerce than secure payment protocols. Two of the selling points of net commerce in general are the promise of extremely rich experiences in comparative shopping and the prospect of finding merchants serving very narrow niches. Directories – comprehensive, encyclopedic – are critical to delivering on those promises … Net commerce can offer much lower prices than physical stores and even stores selling through catalogs, because the core marketing and transaction costs are so much less. One way of throwing this advantage away is to commit to site promotion strategies that cost lots of money … Directories are one of the few site-promotion strategies that don’t cost much, if anything, and will persuade people to start shopping in cyberspace in the first place. That’s why directory development is worth watching closely.”

Biography:

Fred Hapgood took on the role of moderator of the Nanosystems Interest Group at MIT and wrote a number of articles for Wired and other tech publications of the early 1990s. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: December 6, 1994

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: Shopping

Name of publication: Internet Marketing

Title, headline, chapter name: Directories

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.i-m.com/archives/9412/0111.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Gulbranson, Mathea