The future belongs to those who make fundamental investments in technology … Software winds up having a very important role in many of the aspects of this (digital convergence), in many more things than it did 10 years ago … Enabling digital communications is an innovative step … If the information highway is the right metaphor, Microsoft is looking to become the General Motors of the next century … I hope that five years from now we have a pretty good answer to the question, “Where’d you spend the $500 million?”
Predictor: Myhrvold, Nathan
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Information Week, reporter John Soat, quotes Microsoft’s Nathan Myhrvold. Soat writes: ”Nathan Myhrvold is thinking about the future … Specifically, he’s thinking about the future of Microsoft Corp., where he directs the Advanced Technology Group (ATG). ‘The future belongs to those who make fundamental investments in technology,’ Myhrvold says. ‘That’s why we’re spending over $100 million a year.’ … Microsoft’s comprehensive information highway strategy … includes interactive television (ITV), wireless communications and multimedia-authoring technology. The strategy involves operating systems, network standards, technology specifications and development tools with all of the work done or coordinated by ATG … ATG is Microsoft’s elite technology shock troops. Its mission: To lead Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft and, by extension, the entire software industry into the 21st century. Some industry insiders say this work gives Microsoft a shot at dominating the emerging digital communications business the way it now dominates the PC software industry … Products under development within ATG fall into several categories, including software for natural language processing, speech recognition, artificial intelligence, software engineering, and programming languages. Of course, the technology attracting the most attention involves Microsoft’s efforts on the information highway: the distributed operating systems, GUIs, network services and support. But it’s still mostly software. ‘We’re not planning any major excursion outside of software,’ says Myhrvold. ‘We’re not planning on becoming movie producers. Software winds up having a very important role in many of the aspects of this (digital convergence), in many more things than it did 10 years ago … Enabling digital communications is an innovative step. It requires innovations in both technology and business and a very creative strategy … As you make that leap to becoming a distributor of information, you need an enormous amount of innovation to create the infrastructure to make it happen … If the information highway is the right metaphor, Microsoft is looking to become the General Motors of the next century, with ATG as its crack design team. Myhrvold, despite his academic background, is practical: ‘I hope that five years from now we have a pretty good answer to the question, “Where’d you spend the $500 million?”‘”
Biography:Nathan Myhrvold worked at Microsoft Corporation as chief technology officer in the 1990s. Myhrvold was responsible for the Advanced Technology and Research Group, which had a budget of over $2 billion per year. Earlier, he was group vice president of Applications and Content, which included a number of Microsoft divisions, including Desktop Applications, Consumer, Research and Microsoft On Line Systems. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Language/Interface/Software
Name of publication: Information Week
Title, headline, chapter name: Driving Microsoft: As Head of its Advanced Technology Group, Nathan Myhrvold Has the Software Giant in the Fast Lane of Development for the Information Highway
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=c5119b461486ac90ccefc42d67310df6&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=c91a82b93da3642ed39a261f999380ba
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Edwards, Elizabeth