Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

If we have no privacy in our transaction systems, I can see every payment – every cup of coffee you drink, every Mars bar you get, every glass of Coke you drink, every door you open, every telephone call – you make. If I can see those, I don’t need a private investigator. I can just sit behind my terminal and follow you around all day.

Predictor: Ferguson, Niels

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine on e-cash, Steven Levy quotes Niels Ferguson, a DigiCash cryptographer. Levy writes: ”In fact, says Niels Ferguson, a cryptographer who works for DigiCash, ‘the people who decide actually often have an interest in not protecting people’s privacy because they are among the potential benefactors of gathering the information.’ But what of the Nathan Myhrvolds, who seem to argue that they want traceability? Ferguson sighs. ‘Oh, the number of times I’ve had to argue with people that they need privacy! They’ll say, “I don’t care if you know where I spend my money.” I usually tell them, “What if I hire a private investigator to follow you around all day? Would you get mad?” And the answer always is, “Yes, of course I would get mad.” And then my argument is, “If we have no privacy in our transaction systems, I can see every payment – every cup of coffee you drink, every Mars bar you get, every glass of Coke you drink, every door you open, every telephone call – you make. If I can see those, I don’t need a private investigator. I can just sit behind my terminal and follow you around all day.” And then people start to realize that, yes, privacy is in fact something important. Any one part of the information is probably unimportant. But the collection of the information, that is important.'”

Date of prediction: December 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: E-cash

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: E-Money (That’s What I Want)

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.12/emoney_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney