Depending on how they work, the various systems of electronic money will prove to be boons or disasters, bastions of individual privacy or violators of individual freedom. At the worst, a faulty or crackable system of electronic money could lead to an economic Chernobyl. Imagine the dark side: cryptocash hackers who figure out how to spoof an e-money system. A desktop mint! The resulting flood of bad digits would make the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic – where people carted wheelbarrows full of marks to pay for groceries – look like a stable monetary system.
Predictor: Levy, Steven
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Steven Levy covers the future of electronic money. Levy gathers the information he’s heard from the experts and projects how it all might work: ”Imagine that all the uses of credit cards and debit cards are seamlessly integrated into electronic format. Now start to think about real money. Cash will reside in credit-card-sized plastic smart cards which can be stored in palm-sized ‘electronic wallets.’ The days of nervously accessing the ATM machine at 2 a.m., looking over your shoulder for muggers, are over. You’ll download money from the safety of your electronic cottage. You will use these cards in telephones (including those in the home), as well as electronic wallets, disgorging them whenever you spend money, checking the cards on the spot to confirm that the merchant took only the amount you planned to spend. The sum will be automatically debited from your stash into the merchant’s. Cash will be a number, a digitized certificate you’ll probably never see. Commerce on the Net will reproduce the process in cyberspace: You will download money from your bank, put it in a virtual wallet, and spend it online. You will also be able to receive money from your employer, someone who buys something from you, or a friendly soul who lends you a virtual sawbuck until payday. Exactly what goes on inside smart cards, wallets, and computers won’t be apparent. But the protocols chosen by the lords of e-money are all-important. Depending on how they work, the various systems of electronic money will prove to be boons or disasters, bastions of individual privacy or violators of individual freedom. At the worst, a faulty or crackable system of electronic money could lead to an economic Chernobyl. Imagine the dark side: cryptocash hackers who figure out how to spoof an e-money system. A desktop mint! The resulting flood of bad digits would make the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic – where people carted wheelbarrows full of marks to pay for groceries – look like a stable monetary system.”
Biography:Steven Levy was a 1990s technology journalist. He wrote on the topic for decades for such publications as Newsweek and Wired. He is the author of the books “Hackers,” “Artificial Life” and “Crypto.” (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-cash
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: E-Money (That’s What I Want)
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.12/emoney_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lusk, James T.