In [one vision of the future,] viewers are blessed with the great gift of interactivity … They have become couch potatoes of the tenth power. Equipped with special glasses and a headset, people use their TV links to experience all sorts of events and sights and trips without ever stirring from their ergonomically designed lounge chairs. Virtual reality has now become primary reality … Cocooning becomes a form of self-burial and a relative to paranoia. [In another, television is] a “catalyst” for people to share common experiences … interactive television could not replace the “shared experience” of watching … the World Series … “Digitally compressed interactive high-definition television is not going to be the center of the universe. Why? Because there is no substitute for being out there, meeting, working, traveling, mingling and learning.”
Predictor: Eisner, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Broadcasting & Cable magazine, Mike Freeman reports on a speech Walt Disney Co. CEO Michael Eisner gave at the PROMAX/BDA conference in Orlando, Florida. Freeman writes: ”As major cable and computer companies rush into alliances to build America’s 500-channel information ‘superhighway,’ Walt Disney Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Michael Eisner warns that the edge of the technological envelope is being pushed a little too quickly … Eisner offered two scenarios for the future – one that he called ‘Orwellian in nature,’ and another which would offer substantial educational and entertainment benefits, if the investment and programming opportunities were handled properly. In his worst-case scenario, an increasing number of America’s viewing households will ‘cocoon’ themselves in front of interactive television sets rather than venture onto crime-ridden streets for shopping and other errands … All of this ‘huge, stay-home TV population,’ he suggested will be subjected to ‘technocrats calling the shots’ for a ‘bland mediocrity of programming, with low costs and lower aspirations. ‘In this future time that we’re viewing, viewers are blessed with the great gift of interactivity, where they’ll be able to shop anywhere or anytime without leaving home,’ Eisner said. ‘They have become couch potatoes of the tenth power. Equipped with special glasses and a headset, people use their TV links to experience all sorts of events and sights and trips without ever stirring from their ergonomically designed lounge chairs. Virtual reality has now become primary reality. To put a shell safely around yourself so you’re not at the mercy of a mean and unpredictable society … where an electronic box constantly treats you to all life’s experiences, becomes isolating. Cocooning becomes a form of self-burial and a relative to paranoia.’ Despite painting such a grim picture of the way things could be, Eisner said he was ‘too much of an optimist’ to believe television would replace the basic functions of ‘human interaction.’ Television, he said, will not be an ‘end-all,’ but a ‘catalyst’ for people to share common experiences. He predicted that interactive television could not replace the ‘shared experience’ of watching the final episode of ‘Cheers,’ the World Series or major miniseries on the broadcast networks. ‘Digitally compressed interactive high-definition television is not going to be the center of the universe,’ Eisner said. ‘Why? Because there is no substitute for being out there, meeting, working, traveling, mingling and learning.'”
Date of prediction: June 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Broadcasting & Cable
Title, headline, chapter name: Eisner On the Info Highway: Slow Down – Michael Eisner Speaks on the 500-Channel Television Proposal
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 123, Issue 25, Page 26
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney