State regulators should not only allow but also encourage all forms of local infrastructure competition … Open access on the subscriber side would accelerate the technological development of cable modems and lower the providers’ risks by distributing among subscribers the cost of a large portion of the necessary equipment. On the provider side, open access would strengthen the Internet provider’s position relative to the cable firm, so that more Internet providers would be willing to ink contracts.
Predictor: Gillett, Sharon Eisner
Prediction, in context:Sharon Eisner Gillett made the following remarks in a research presentation at INET ’95, the Internet Society’s 1995 International Networking Conference in Honolulu, Hawaii, June 27-30. At the time, she was completing her MS in MIT’s Technology and Policy Program and her MBA from MIT’s Sloan School of Management. She had spent the past three years as a research assistant with the Research Program on Communications Policy and the Telemedia, Networks, and Systems Group of MIT’s Laboratory for Computer Science. Her research was focused on telecommunications economics, Internet access, and universal service. From 1982-92 she had worked at Bolt Beranek & Newman Communications Corp. and Thinking Machines Corp. She says: ”Without regulatory changes to mitigate the current situation of monopolistic hold-up by infrastructure providers, the diffusion of high-speed residential Internet access is unlikely to keep pace with the overall Internet diffusion curve. The analysis in this paper suggests two regulatory policies that can improve the chances of this innovation becoming a more widespread reality: … State regulators should not only allow but also encourage all forms of local infrastructure competition … Developments in those technologies that are suitable for Internet access will be important for Internet service providers to track. Two-way wireless networks are a good example … This development should translate into new business opportunities for residential Internet service providers. … Increased competition alone will not address all the problems identified in the analysis above; open access to local infrastructure is also needed, on both the provider and subscriber sides of the network. Open access is much further advanced in local telephony than in the cable industry. On the subscriber side, since the early 1980s customers have been able to attach their own telephone equipment to the network, resulting in a wide variety of benefits. This ability has been a critical factor in the success of data transmission over ordinary telephone modems and is currently helping to drive the diffusion of a plethora of ISDN-compatible computer networking equipment … These principles have not been applied at all to cable networks, which, as the analysis in this paper has shown, has hindered the development of the ‘Internet over cable’ innovation. Open access on the subscriber side would accelerate the technological development of cable modems and lower the providers’ risks by distributing among subscribers the cost of a large portion of the necessary equipment. On the provider side, open access would strengthen the Internet provider’s position relative to the cable firm, so that more Internet providers would be willing to ink contracts.”
Date of prediction: June 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Open Access
Name of publication: ISOC INET '95 (conference)
Title, headline, chapter name: Encouraging Cable and ISDN Internet Access
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.isoc.org/HMP/PAPER/086/txt/paper.txt
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney