I would say that a Chinese or Russian future is a radically different future than an American future. Much less human freedom, much less diversity … It’s change done by modeling rather than change done by control. If we establish an information-age, economically decisive, exciting America, the rest of the world will imitate us … You have to go in phases. Phase one is conceptualizing; phase two is applying it to America; phase three is encouraging the world to learn what we’re doing; and phase four is interacting with the world. You’ve got to do it in that sequence, although phases two and three can be parallel … The genius of a free society is that if you are in fact correct about your perception of the future, people will aggregate and reinforce it.
Predictor: Gingrich, Newt
Prediction, in context:For a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Esther Dyson interviews U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at his House office about the future of the Internet. Dyson quotes Gingrich saying: ”As an American, I think we had better get America in shape before we lead the world. Because if America collapses under you, you won’t be capable of leading the world … I would say that a Chinese or Russian future is a radically different future than an American future. Much less human freedom, much less diversity … It’s change done by modeling rather than change done by control. If we establish an information-age, economically decisive, exciting America, the rest of the world will imitate us … You have to go in phases. Phase one is conceptualizing; phase two is applying it to America; phase three is encouraging the world to learn what we’re doing; and phase four is interacting with the world. You’ve got to do it in that sequence, although phases two and three can be parallel … The genius of a free society is that if you are in fact correct about your perception of the future, people will aggregate and reinforce it. If you’re not correct, they won’t. So you can constantly be doing market tests … Frank Herbert, in ‘Dune,’ wrote that the possible number of futures is virtually infinite. So you never know.”
Biography:Newt Gingrich was a U.S. Congressman and the Speaker of the House of Representatives who was known to be so tech-savvy that Wired magazine ran stories on his tech policy positions. He opposed Senator Exon’s controversial Communications Decency Act. (Legislator/Politician/Lawyer.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Friend or Foe: Newt Gingrich Talks the Talk About Being a Revolutionary. And He Walks the Walk by Ramming Through the Most Radical Political Agenda Since the New Deal. So Why Does He Still Leave Us Feeling Uncomfortable?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.08/newt_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney