Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet, which only just recently got this section here in InfoWorld, will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a classic 1995 article he wrote for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer Robert Metcalfe, the man behind Ethernet, enumerated his reasons for the imminent collapse of the Internet. He writes: ”Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet, which only just recently got this section here in InfoWorld, will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm120495.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven