The Internet traffic carrying arguments about pornography on the Internet will during 1996 swamp the actual pornography, so even the most sophisticated Web search engines will too often fail to find any. What quicker road to collapse? So, in 1996, CD-ROMs through Federal Express will emerge as the information superhighway. Instead of an Internet brimming with Web pages under construction, too few of us will haunt ghost pages. I hope I’m not being too negative. Tell me if you think so.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a classic 1995 article he wrote for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer Robert Metcalfe, the man behind Ethernet, enumerated his reasons “the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He lists 11 reasons for his prediction, including this one: ”Pornography: The Internet traffic carrying arguments about pornography on the Internet will during 1996 swamp the actual pornography, so even the most sophisticated Web search engines will too often fail to find any. What quicker road to collapse? So, in 1996, CD-ROMs through Federal Express will emerge as the information superhighway. Instead of an Internet brimming with Web pages under construction, too few of us will haunt ghost pages. I hope I’m not being too negative. Tell me if you think so.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Pornography
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm120495.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven