As if to make up for the shortage of real money to finance Internet commerce, several companies have been trying to mint digital money. They have, however, failed to streamline financial activity – there are now more, not fewer, middlepersons. Therefore, transaction costs, at 50 cents each or more, remain way too high. Without efficient micropayments, there will be little Internet commerce, except, maybe, but probably not, some advertising.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a classic 1995 article he wrote for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer Robert Metcalfe, the man behind Ethernet, enumerated his reasons “the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He lists 11 reasons for his prediction, including this one: ”Digital Money: As if to make up for the shortage of real money to finance Internet commerce, several companies have been trying to mint digital money. They have, however, failed to streamline financial activity – there are now more, not fewer, middlepersons. Therefore, transaction costs, at 50 cents each or more, remain way too high. Without efficient micropayments, there will be little Internet commerce, except, maybe, but probably not, some advertising.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: Microtransactions
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm120495.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven