Dazzling product literature and advertising require at least ISDN speeds. But the major corporations upon which we are relying to upgrade Internet access past 28.8 Kbps are the local telco monopolies, which like our postal service and public schools have become little more than jobs programs. The local telcos will escape demonopolization in 1995 and, while they pursue long-distance voice business in 1996, their motivation to lower costs on high-speed Internet access will wither, fatally constipating the Web.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a classic 1995 article he wrote for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer Robert Metcalfe, the man behind Ethernet, enumerated his reasons “the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He lists 11 reasons for his prediction, including this one: ”Monopolies: Dazzling product literature and advertising require at least ISDN speeds. But the major corporations upon which we are relying to upgrade Internet access past 28.8 Kbps are the local telco monopolies, which like our postal service and public schools have become little more than jobs programs. The local telcos will escape demonopolization in 1995 and, while they pursue long-distance voice business in 1996, their motivation to lower costs on high-speed Internet access will wither, fatally constipating the Web.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm120495.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven