The prediction, in brief:

During 1996, the war for control of standards will tear the Web. And early initiatives to migrate to Internet Protocol Next Generation will add to a general loss of compatibility. Such losses, including the flight to Intranets, will reduce whatever systemic value was accumulating in the Internet, as governed by the inverse of Metcalfe’s Law [a network becomes more valuable as it reaches more users].

Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert

Prediction, in context:

In a classic 1995 article he wrote for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer Robert Metcalfe, the man behind Ethernet, enumerated his reasons “the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He lists 11 reasons for his prediction, including this one:”Compatibility: During 1996, the war for control of standards will tear the Web. And early initiatives to migrate to Internet Protocol Next Generation will add to a general loss of compatibility. Such losses, including the flight to Intranets, will reduce whatever systemic value was accumulating in the Internet, as governed by the inverse of Metcalfe’s Law [a network becomes more valuable as it reaches more users].”

Biography:

Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: December 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Protocols

Name of publication: InfoWorld

Title, headline, chapter name: From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm120495.htm

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven