Technologists dream of a universal network, equally capable of handling voice, video, and data. This dream began its march toward reality with the development of ATM … A single standard for both voice and data promised an end to the networking Tower of Babel. The technology continues to evolve, and questions still remain, but products that support ATM are now entering the market … The technique simply divides all information, whether voice or video, into very short snippets … Despite ATM’s flexibility, or perhaps because of it, ATM will not be a panacea … But there is no doubt that ATM will be extremely important. It will be a universal language in the same way that English is.
Predictor: Steinberg, Steve G.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 column for Wired magazine, Steve Steinberg looks at the development of asynchronous transfer mode (ATM). Steinberg writes: ”Just as physicists dream of a final, all-encompassing theory, so technologists dream of a universal network, equally capable of handling voice, video, and data. This dream began its march toward reality with the development of ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) by researchers at Bellcore and Cambridge University. By combining the best of earlier voice and data protocols, ATM offered telephone companies a way to support both types of traffic over the same network. The companies’ quick acceptance of ATM spurred interest within the computer industry. A single standard for both voice and data promised an end to the networking Tower of Babel. The technology continues to evolve, and questions still remain, but products that support ATM are now entering the market … The technique simply divides all information, whether voice or video, into very short snippets … The content of the data bytes could be ASCII characters or the sound of a whistle, but ATM uses constant length cells. This ensures that delays are predictable and fair: small voice packets can’t get trapped behind long data packets. Constant length also allows for simpler – and therefore faster – switching hardware … Once information has been chopped into uniform cells, it becomes very easy to play with … Despite ATM’s flexibility, or perhaps because of it, ATM will not be a panacea. Due to the small cell size, it will probably be too inefficient for high-speed LANs, despite all the hype you hear at shows like NetWorld + Interop. Nor is it clear that ATM is suitable for traffic dominated by constant bit-rate streams. But there is no doubt that ATM will be extremely important. It will be a universal language in the same way that English is, filled with compromises and borrowed concepts from other languages, awkward in certain situations, unusable in others. Yet, logical or not, through sheer popularity, it will alter how we communicate.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Geek Page: All Aboard – the Rush Toward ATM
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/geek.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney