The real miracle of micro-electronics is that these extraordinarily complex hierarchies can be incorporated into individual silicon chips, with virtual supercomputer capabilities. This fabulous supercomputer power can be ubiquitously distributed in the fibersphere … When everybody commands a supercomputer, you give the average owner of a work station the power that an industrial tycoon commanded in the industrial era.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, executive editor Kevin Kelly interviews George Gilder, author of “Wealth and Poverty” and “Telecosm.” Kelly quotes Gilder: ”The complexity of digital systems requires a hierarchical organization. It’s the only way to deal with the kind of combinatorial explosions that attend interlinking of billions of nodes, all functioning in parallel. You need nested hierarchies, but the real miracle of micro-electronics is that these extraordinarily complex hierarchies can be incorporated into individual silicon chips, with virtual supercomputer capabilities. This fabulous supercomputer power can be ubiquitously distributed in the fibersphere. So hierarchies do indeed exist, but they are ubiquitously distributed, which renders them an egalitarian force. When everybody commands a supercomputer, you give the average owner of a work station the power that an industrial tycoon commanded in the industrial era, or that a TV station owner commands in the age of broadcasting. In other words, the hierarchy is in the silicon rather than in the human organization. So you have this incredible distribution of power. This is a period of transition that resembles the transition between railroads and automobiles … Moving from broadcast model to the teleputer is like moving from a railroad model to automobiles. Automobiles are essentially egalitarian transportation systems. They aren’t organized – like the Internet. A Ferrari, say, and a Toyota Tercel look like radically different machines, but the fact is that any car endows the average person with more freedom than any railroad.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: George Gilder: When Bandwidth is Free: The Dark Fiber Interview
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.04/gilder_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney