Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

If simply placing something on an anonymous FTP server constitutes “export,” then life will become pretty complicated. As Americans, we’re used to wandering pretty freely inside our borders. Very few of us encounter our borders on a daily basis. If the Internet is deemed to be our border, then the U.S. becomes balkanized. Every inter-company communication is a cross-border transaction. Seems ludicrous, right? Then the only other conclusion I can see is that posting something on a server in the U.S. cannot, by itself, constitute an export act.

Predictor: Crocker, Steve

Prediction, in context:

The following is an excerpt taken from a 1995 e-mail exchange in which Steve Crocker replies to David Farber about Internet surveillance: ”The wording of [a news] story suggests that if Zimmerman did, in fact, place PGP on the Internet, then he necessarily violated the export regulations. Is the Internet inextricably outside the country? If the Government is going to press this matter, one of the issues that has to be cleared up is what constitutes an act of export. If simply placing something on an anonymous FTP server constitutes ‘export,’ then life will become pretty complicated. As Americans, we’re used to wandering pretty freely inside our borders. Very few of us encounter our borders on a daily basis. If the Internet is deemed to be our border, then the U.S. becomes balkanized. Every inter-company communication is a cross-border transaction. Seems ludicrous, right? Then the only other conclusion I can see is that posting something on a server in the U.S. cannot, by itself, constitute an export act.”

Biography:

Steve Crocker was probably best known in the 1990s as the founder of CyberCash Inc. a leading Internet payments company. Earlier, he was program manager on the team developing the protocols for ARPANET in 1966. In1968, he organized the Network Working Group to develop host-level protocols for ARPANET communication. He began the Request for Comment (RFC) series of notes through which Internet protocol designs are documented and shared, and he wrote RFC 1 and many others. In1970, he worked with Vinton Cerf and C.S. Carr to publish the first ARPANET host-host protocol. He later became known as an Internet and computer business and security specialist. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: April 28, 1994

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Interesting People Message

Title, headline, chapter name: Government Probes ‘Pretty Good Privacy’ Export

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/199404/msg00076.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Culp, William Jarrell