Within 10 years, a system offering VR telepresence control of a robotic cop could be available … There are more problems with cops in the field than there will be with robots…under these life and death situations. For one thing, the entire session will be recorded, so there will be greater accountability. Violence occurs through loss of control. Not having officers’ lives in jeopardy will allow them to maintain their cool.
Predictor: Moravec, Hans
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Gareth Branwyn analyzes the issues surrounding the use of machines for law enforcement. Branwyn quotes Hans Moravec, author of “Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence.” Branwyn writes: ”Moravec is not terribly optimistic about the immediate future of sophisticated robots in law enforcement, not because he has objections to their use, but because he doesn’t think there’s enough of a market for them to drive down the price. He anticipates that it will be more than a decade before the use of robots with any decision-making capabilities becomes an issue for debate. Moravec predicts that the first big market for ‘smart’ autonomous robots will be for commercial and domestic cleaning. ‘This will drive component development in the next decade or so,’ he predicts. ‘There will be no serious use of any type of sophisticated robots in law enforcement until then. There are high costs in significantly increasing the human bandwidth – the fidelity of remote telepresence, for instance.’ Moravec estimates that within 10 years, a system offering VR telepresence control of a robotic cop could be available. Does he have problems with the idea of cops making arrests from within such a virtual environment? ‘I think there are more problems with cops in the field than there will be with robots…under these life and death situations. For one thing, the entire session will be recorded, so there will be greater accountability. Violence occurs through loss of control. Not having officers’ lives in jeopardy will allow them to maintain their cool.’ Without reservation, Moravec concludes, ‘For them, it will be like playing a video game.'”
Biography:Hans Moravec was a professor at Carnegie Mellon university’s Robotics Institute who caused a lot of consternation with the book “Mind Children: The Future of the Robot and Human Intelligence,” in which he predicted the rise of machines and extinction of humans. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Hard-Nosed Cops? Crime in the Age of Intelligent Machines
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/robot.cops_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney