The prediction, in brief:

In the long term the most intriguing relationships may not be between agents and masters, but between agents and agents. The more agents there are, the more likely it is that they will deal with other agents. Although it is possible for all the agents to operate in isolation, it sounds wasteful. If thousands of agents are doing roughly the same sort of thing for their masters, why not pool resources?

Predictor: Bennahum, David S.

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for The Economist, David S. Bennahum discusses intelligent-agent software technology and the effect it will have on networks. He writes:”Autonomous programs could make computer networks weirder and more wonderful. We look at how they could help, and how they might evolve. Julia has a helpful disposition. When people using a particular computer system need advice, Julia is there to offer it … Julia is an agent, a program used to do a somewhat human task without taking up a human’s time. Most agents are too simple to beguile any but the most fetishistic nerd. But they are becoming more sophisticated. In a decade or so, you may be as likely to meet a ‘person’ like Julia in your computer network as you are a person like yourself … Software agents … work for you while you do something else. They sort electronic mail, select articles for personalized newspapers, or even – at least in principle – go shopping in a virtual marketplace. Nor need they help only their masters; like Julia, they can help other people too … In the long term the most intriguing relationships may not be between agents and masters, but between agents and agents. The more agents there are, the more likely it is that they will deal with other agents. Although it is possible for all the agents to operate in isolation, it sounds wasteful. If thousands of agents are doing roughly the same sort of thing for their masters, why not pool resources? … As more agents start to roam the network in search of cheap airline tickets, telecoms stocks and what have you, the pressure for efficiency will push them to share resources: a regiment of agents can watch AT&T’s share price together, parting company only at the point when their instructions about when to buy or sell differ. A system that allows agents this sort of freedom will be neither simple nor predictable, however straightforward the instructions the agents set out with. But it might be immensely fruitful. It may be the true value of computer networks.” 

Date of prediction: May 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: Intelligent Agents/AI

Name of publication: The Economist

Title, headline, chapter name: Have Data, Will Travel

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://memex.org/havedatawilltravel.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: McAlister, Rory