The prediction, in brief:

There’s a kind of gymnastic ability just mentally that’s needed to stay with this kind of thing, so there is a frightening aspect to it. I think part of what we’ll be doing over the next decade or so is figuring out some ways to somehow make ourselves comfortable with that, maybe by slowing down the pace of change. We don’t want to live with things that break that bad – if a whole Net goes down it takes down the international currency with it, things like this. “OK, that’s a problem – let’s slow down.” That’s one way it might slow down. Another one is just people saying, “This is too fast, I can’t bear it.” And that’s, I think, the likelier way it’ll go.

Predictor: Brand, Stewart

Prediction, in context:

In an interview that aired on PBS-TV in 1995, Internet pioneer Stewart Brand said:”When I look at the pace of change constantly increasing, it’s both awesome and exciting, and I think, ‘How do we keep up? How do I keep up?’ As I get older – I’m 56 now – how am I going to keep up? You know, another 10 years with all this stuff coming along … By competing with 16-year-olds … There’s a kind of gymnastic ability just mentally that’s needed to stay with this kind of thing, so there is a frightening aspect to it. I think part of what we’ll be doing over the next decade or so is figuring out some ways to somehow make ourselves comfortable with that, maybe by slowing down the pace of change. We don’t want to live with things that break that bad – if a whole Net goes down it takes down the international currency with it, things like this. “OK, that’s a problem – let’s slow down.” That’s one way it might slow down. Another one is just people saying, “This is too fast, I can’t bear it.” And that’s, I think, the likelier way it’ll go.”

Biography:

Stewart Brand founded Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link (WELL) in 1985 with Larry Brilliant. This was one of the first and most intellectually active online “communities.” (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: June 15, 1995

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Information Overload

Name of publication: PBS-TV Interview in San Francisco

Title, headline, chapter name: High Stakes in Cyberspace

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/cyberspace/brand.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney