The prediction, in brief:

So far, two models or metaphors – “highways” and “railroads” have been proposed to frame the debate. Both borrow from transportation examples in U.S. history. Both, I believe, fall short of the mark. And we suggest that a little tweaking of the two, the best solution for the U.S. might be found in a kind of synthesis of these different visions.

Predictor: Karraker, Roger

Prediction, in context:

In a 1991 article for The Whole Earth Review, a quarterly magazine of access to tools and ideas, Roger Karraker writes about the network:”At issue are vastly different visions of the roles of government, education and corporations. Four key questions dominate the debate: 1. Who will build the network? (Will the federal government create the infrastructure or will it be left to private enterprise?) 2. Who will have access to network services? The debate here is between those who would restrict the network’s services to the nation’s research leaders and those who believe in access to anyone with a modem. 3. Who will pay for all this? Everyone concedes that the federal government will pay the lion’s share of getting the network under way. But should it do so by directly funding the infrastructure or by paying the user fees of just the big research organizations working on federal projects? 4. What kind of information will be allowed on the network? If the federal government owns the network, the First Amendment is in place and unpopular speech and art will be protected. If private enterprise owns and runs the network, freedom of electronic speech is less clear. Conceivably, a corporation owning the network could refuse to allow discussion of controversial topics. So far, two models or metaphors – ‘highways’ and ‘railroads’ have been proposed to frame the debate. Both borrow from transportation examples in U.S. history. Both, I believe, fall short of the mark. And we suggest that a little tweaking of the two, the best solution for the U.S. might be found in a kind of synthesis of these different visions.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Whole Earth Revue

Title, headline, chapter name: Highways of the Mind or Toll Roads Between Information Castles?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Net_culture/Criticisms/hiways_of_mind.article

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry