The computer industry is converging with the television industry in the same sense that the automobile converged with the horse … Making the boob tube into an interactive hive of theater, museum, classroom, banking system, shopping center, post office and communicator is contrary to the nature of the box.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 column for The New York Times, Hans Fantel quotes George Gilder, a man known for cooking up interesting concepts about the future of networked communications. Fantel writes: ”[Some experts] feel that an onrush of computer technology will alter the face of home entertainment. The leading exponent of such iconoclastic ideas is George Gilder, who has been called a techno-visionary. This label doesn’t quite fit, for Mr. Gilder is firmly rooted in the realities of the market to function as a management consultant in the communications industry. ‘The computer industry is converging with the television industry in the same sense that the automobile converged with the horse,’ declares Mr. Gilder … ‘Interactivity, almost by definition, is a computer function, not a television function,’ Mr. Gilder claims. ‘Making the boob tube into an interactive hive of theater, museum, classroom, banking system, shopping center, post office and communicator is contrary to the nature of the box.’ Only the personal computer, says Mr. Gilder, holds out hope for realizing these multiple services that have been dangled before the public.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: New York Times
Title, headline, chapter name: Home Entertainment: New Off-Ramps On Info Highway For Couch Potatoes
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=34a2fd6cbc25f0b21668c52d81dce473&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=85f66e7027d0077596a0a5d4cb3a8b7d
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty