In our time, under the prod of the new technology, entertainment and information services will ultimately follow the same historic pattern. Profound changes are seldom abrupt, and the broadcasting industry will probably do everything in its considerable power to delay or derail any shift to other delivery methods.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 column for The New York Times, Hans Fantel quotes George Gilder, a man known for cooking up interesting concepts about the future of networked communications. Fantel writes: ”Mr. Gilder emphasizes that throughout economic history, monopolies have yielded to the pressure of broadening demand. This has been true from the royal monopolies on tobacco, sugar and spices in the 17th century to the more recent attempts to control the distribution of oil. Moreover, it often proved more profitable to serve a large, open market than a narrowly controlled one. Mr. Gilder believes that in our time, under the prod of the new technology, entertainment and information services will ultimately follow the same historic pattern. Profound changes are seldom abrupt, and the broadcasting industry will probably do everything in its considerable power to delay or derail any shift to other delivery methods.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: New York Times
Title, headline, chapter name: Home Entertainment: New Off-Ramps On Info Highway For Couch Potatoes
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=34a2fd6cbc25f0b21668c52d81dce473&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=85f66e7027d0077596a0a5d4cb3a8b7d
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney