The videophone is a shining example of technology hype. It was invented for the sole purpose of showing off a clever design concept. Despite repeated failures over the last 25 years, despite convincing sociological reasons why no one wants a videophone, engineers continue to develop new, improved versions. Two research fronts exist today: In the U.S., computer companies such as AT&T, Intel, and Sun are developing hardware that allows standard computers to be used as videophones. And in Japan, consumer giants like Sharp and Hitachi are testing devices that allow camcorders to deliver images over a phone line. The technological achievements coming out of both camps are impressive – but misguided.
Predictor: Steinberg, Steve G.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article listing tech items and issues that are currently being hyped, Steve Steinberg of Wired magazine writes: ”The videophone is a shining example of technology hype. It was invented for the sole purpose of showing off a clever design concept. Despite repeated failures over the last 25 years, despite convincing sociological reasons why no one wants a videophone, engineers continue to develop new, improved versions. Two research fronts exist today: In the U.S., computer companies such as AT&T, Intel, and Sun are developing hardware that allows standard computers to be used as videophones. And in Japan, consumer giants like Sharp and Hitachi are testing devices that allow camcorders to deliver images over a phone line. The technological achievements coming out of both camps are impressive – but misguided.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Internet Telephony
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Hype List: Videophones
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/hypelist.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney