The Internet will not work as a mass medium in the future. There is no revenue stream … and it requires too much time and expertise to learn and use. The future will not look like America Online, Minitel, or Internet. If the information superhighway is to be for all, then it cannot (and should not) be limited by price, technological crudity, or scientific configuration. The new infohighway ought to be as advanced as possible and available to all who might like to use it.
Predictor: Gomery, Douglas
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wilson Quarterly, Douglas Gomery writes: ”There is much to admire about the Internet. It promotes diversity; it is truly interactive; it encourages commentary by one and all. But the Internet will not work as a mass medium in the future. There is no revenue stream (it is underwritten by the federal government, universities, and other institutions), and it requires too much time and expertise to learn and use. Indeed, in the next few years there will be a struggle for the soul of the Internet as advertisers seek to use its reach to send messages to its millions of users. The future will not look like America Online, Minitel, or Internet. If the information superhighway is to be for all, then it cannot (and should not) be limited by price, technological crudity, or scientific configuration. The new infohighway ought to be as advanced as possible and available to all who might like to use it.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: The Wilson Quarterly
Title, headline, chapter name: In Search of the Cybermarket
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://weblinks2.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+1+ln+en%2Dus+sid+AC7E3702%2DA800%2D48A5%2DBA0A%2DD61897A4410B%40Sessionmgr2+8FAF&_uh=btn+N+idb+afhish+jdb+afhjnh+op+phrase+ss+ID++WLQ+CC1F&_us=bs+JN++%22Wilson++Quarterly%22++and++DT++19940601+ds+JN++%22Wilson++Quarterly%22++and++DT++19940601+dstb+KS+fcl+Aut+ri+KAAACB1D00236175+sm+KS+F4D2&fn=1&rn=2
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty