[The growing shortage of Internet addresses is] definitely considered the most significant engineering problem on the Internet now. A new group has been given the mandate to come up with a proposal to solve the problem … The most comprehensive solution is to replace the Internet Protocol in the Internet with the Open Systems Interconnection Connectionless Network Protocol. That idea is already almost universally accepted. The process would involve replacing IP with OSI in the National Science Foundation backbone. The regional networks already have installed the ability to switch CLNP traffic. It would not mean a wholesale shift to OSI, but it means the things incorporated in OSI are useful. Ultimately, the operators of the networks would have to agree to do it.
Predictor: Chapin, Lyman
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 Network World article, Ellen Messmer interviews Lyman Chapin, chief network architect for BBN Communications Corp. and chairman of the Network Working Group’s Internet Activities Board. The IAB sets Internet standards and reviews the operations of two subsidiary groups, the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the Internet Research Task Force (IRTF). Messmer quotes Chapin saying: ”[The growing shortage of Internet addresses is] definitely considered the most significant engineering problem on the Internet now. A new group has been given the mandate to come up with a proposal to solve the problem … The most comprehensive solution is to replace the Internet Protocol in the Internet with the Open Systems Interconnection Connectionless Network Protocol. That idea is already almost universally accepted. The process would involve replacing IP with OSI in the National Science Foundation backbone. The regional networks already have installed the ability to switch CLNP traffic. It would not mean a wholesale shift to OSI, but it means the things incorporated in OSI are useful. Ultimately, the operators of the networks would have to agree to do it. We would still be running TCP but running it over CLNP. There are very small differences between CLNP and IP.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Protocols
Name of publication: Network World
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Architect Gives Long-Term View; Lyman Chapin, IAB Chairman, Highlights Critical Issues Involved in Running the World’s Largest Net
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 37
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne