Designers will be able to assume error-free transmission and will be able to send large blocks of data, such as video, in mega-packets. The delay in the network will be minimized, and multimedia conferencing will become a reality. On the other hand, the new wireless communications services may not have higher data rates until their designers better understand how to deal with multipath from many buildings and other radio propagation factors that cause errors and reduce transmission rates. Thus the network must handle error-free fiber combined with error-free wireless.
Predictor: McGarty, Terrence P.
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User'” by Terrence P. McGarty and Carole Haywood. McGarty is chairman and CEO of The Telemarc Group, Inc. and Haywood is with RAM Mobile Data Inc. They write: ”New fiber optic networks are almost error free. In fact, with the processing at higher protocol layers, one may now assume error-free transmission. This means that latency – the delay incurred by the need to retransmit data when errors occur – which was prevalent when using the old analog telephone lines, may be totally eliminated. This is a critical factor for multimedia transactions. Designers will be able to assume error-free transmission and will be able to send large blocks of data, such as video, in mega-packets. The delay in the network will be minimized, and multimedia conferencing will become a reality. On the other hand, the new wireless communications services may not have higher data rates until their designers better understand how to deal with multipath from many buildings and other radio propagation factors that cause errors and reduce transmission rates. Thus the network must handle error-free fiber combined with error-free wireless.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User’
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 240
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne