We will all soon be converting paper money into various forms of digital money so we can buy things online. Better yet, we’ll be selling things and converting their digital proceeds into, for example, investigative trips to the Caribbean … I propose using digital cash that can be exchanged spontaneously in very small amounts. Having a digital cash standard and associated micropayment systems should help solve three big Iway payment problems and ignite Iway commerce … If Internet access were to cost a digital dime an online hour, or file transfers a mil a megabyte mile, and if there were micropayment systems available to exchange such small amounts, then I think competitive pricing and metering would work just fine … With a micropayment system connected to your mail server, you could ask that strangers pay for the privilege of sending you messages.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer and Ethernet creator Bob Metcalfe writes: ”We will all soon be converting paper money into various forms of digital money so we can buy things online. Better yet, we’ll be selling things and converting their digital proceeds into, for example, investigative trips to the Caribbean … I propose using digital cash that can be exchanged spontaneously in very small amounts. Having a digital cash standard and associated micropayment systems should help solve three big Iway payment problems and ignite Iway commerce. The first problem is paying for the Iway itself … If Internet access were to cost a digital dime an online hour, or file transfers a mil a megabyte mile, and if there were micropayment systems available to exchange such small amounts, then I think competitive pricing and metering would work just fine. Second is paying for intellectual property … With micropayment systems based on digital cash, I would be able to ask a nickel for this column, and you might be willing to pay before reading … Third is being paid to receive junk mail. I heard this idea a couple of years ago from computer software pundit Esther Dyson and more recently in some detail from InfoWorld reader Gret Henry. With a micropayment system connected to your mail server, you could ask that strangers pay for the privilege of sending you messages.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: March 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: Microtransactions
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Digital Cash – Don’t Leave Your Home Page Without It
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?Did=000000001864658&Fmt=3&Deli=1&Mtd=1&Idx=1&Sid=2&RQT=309
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven