The prediction, in brief:

Some 30,000 Internet Protocol networks – one half of all IP networks – could be attached to the Internet but are not, largely because their owners are worried about security. Technologies are emerging that will enable information on internal networks to be partitioned between what is to be made publicly available and what is to be held confidential.

Predictor: Cerf, Vinton G.

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article in Computerworld, writer Gary H. Anthes paraphrases statements made by Vinton G. Cerf, Internet pioneer and Internet Society leader. He writes:”A panel of experts disagreed last week on how savvy users really are about network security. But on one point they were unanimous: The time has come to end the use of reusable passwords. Testifying before a congressional committee probing a rash of Internet intrusions facilitated by password ‘sniffing,’ the panel said users should move to one of the advanced techniques in which passwords are only used once, are sent encrypted over networks or both. On Feb. 3, the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh send an alert over the Internet warning millions of users of a dramatic increase in illegal network monitoring. This involves intruders gaining privileged access to a computer and installing ‘sniffer’ software to monitor the system’s network interface port and collect log-in information, including passwords. Vinton Cerf, president of the Internet Society and senior vice president for architecture at MCI Communications Corp., said users are aware of the risks and payoffs of Internet use. However, he said some 30,000 Internet Protocol networks – one half of all IP networks – could be attached to the Internet but are not, largely because their owners are worried about security. Cerf said technologies are emerging that will enable information on internal networks to be partitioned between what is to be made publicly available and what is to be held confidential.”

Date of prediction: March 28, 1994

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Computerworld

Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Panel Finds Reusable Passwords a Threat

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=dcb25c1a282b894ae8816a664503556e&_docnum=5&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=4e6f6e91ebca0ffc6e7d0e638b47db6c

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Catalfumo, Cara J.