History is full of civilizations that have collapsed, followed by people who have had other ways of living. My optimism is based on the certainty that this civilization will collapse … You can measure it in three ways. The first would be an economic collapse … Second would [when] the poor, who comprise, let’s say, a fifth of society, are no longer content to be bought off with alcohol and television and drugs, and rises up in rebellion. And at the same time, there would be the same kind of distention within nations, in which the poor nations are no longer content to take the crumbs from our table … The third is accumulating environmental problems, such that Australia, for example, becomes unlivable because of the ozone hole there.
Predictor: Sale, Kirkpatrick
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, editor Kevin Kelly interviews Kirkpatrick Sale, the historian and author of “Rebels Against the Future: The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution,” in which he assails the Internet and computers as a danger to the planet. Kelly, a believer in a brighter future through technology, quotes Sale’s reaction to his optimism: ”Your optimism is contrary to all history up to the present, which suggests that given the values and norms of our particular civilization, we will perfect technology to the task of exploitation and destruction of nature. My optimism, such as it is, argues that because we know of previous societies that existed on every continent, and that existed far longer than Western civilization, and that have judged their technologies on other grounds than Western civilization, that it is possible to recover such societies in the future … History is full of civilizations that have collapsed, followed by people who have had other ways of living. My optimism is based on the certainty that this civilization will collapse … You can measure it in three ways. The first would be an economic collapse. The dollar would be worthless, the yen would be worthless, the mark would be worthless – the dislocation we saw in the Depression of 1930, magnified many times over. A second would be the distention within various societies of the rich and the poor, in which the poor, who comprise, let’s say, a fifth of society, are no longer content to be bought off with alcohol and television and drugs, and rises up in rebellion. And at the same time, there would be the same kind of distention within nations, in which the poor nations are no longer content to take the crumbs from our table, and rise up in either a military or some other form against the richer societies. And then the third is accumulating environmental problems, such that Australia, for example, becomes unlivable because of the ozone hole there, and Africa, from the Sahara to South Africa, becomes unlivable because of new diseases that have been uncovered through deforestation. At any rate, environmental catastrophes on a significant scale.”
Biography:Kirkpatrick Sale, an author and journalist, wrote a book titled “Rebels Against the Future: The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution” that made him a leader of the neo-Luddites of the 1990s. “Luddites” generally believe that technological advances are an endangerment to society. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Interview with the Luddite: Kirkpatrick Sale is a Leader of the Neo-Luddites. Wire’s Kevin Kelly Wrote the Book on Neo-Biological Technology. Food Fight, Anyone?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.06/saleskelly_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney