The next phase of growth will probably not be driven by the computer market … What is likely to happen is that other kinds of markets will develop. These markets will fall into several areas. They all have the characteristic that they are extremely large. They also bring with them a new set of requirements which were not as evident in the early stages of IPv4 deployment. The new markets are also likely to happen in parallel with one another. It may turn out that we will look back on the last 10 years of Internet growth as the time when the Internet was small and only doubling every year. The challenge for an IPng is to provide a solution which solves today’s problems and is attractive in these emerging markets.
Predictor: Hinden, Robert
Prediction, in context:Robert M. Hinden made the following comments in a research presentation at INET ’95, the Internet Society’s 1995 International Networking Conference in Honolulu, Hawaii, June 27-30. He was presenting an overview of the Next Generation Internet Protocol (IPng), recommended by the IPng Area Directors of the Internet Engineering Task Force at the Toronto IETF meeting July 25, 1994. The recommendation was approved Nov. 17, 1994, by the Internet Engineering Steering Group and made a “proposed standard.” Hinden was director of software at Ipsilon Networks, Inc. of Mountain View, Calif., at the time. Hinden says: ”There are several key issues that should be considered when reviewing the design of the next generation internet protocol. Some are very straightforward. For example the new protocol must be able to support large global internetworks … The next phase of growth will probably not be driven by the computer market … What is likely to happen is that other kinds of markets will develop. These markets will fall into several areas. They all have the characteristic that they are extremely large. They also bring with them a new set of requirements which were not as evident in the early stages of IPv4 deployment. The new markets are also likely to happen in parallel with one another. It may turn out that we will look back on the last 10 years of Internet growth as the time when the Internet was small and only doubling every year. The challenge for an IPng is to provide a solution which solves today’s problems and is attractive in these emerging markets.”
Date of prediction: June 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Protocols
Name of publication: ISOC INET '95 (conference)
Title, headline, chapter name: IP Next Generation
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.isoc.org/HMP/PAPER/PT1/html/paper.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney