It seems likely that in a year, anybody is going to be able to buy a machine that with a minimum of configuring will give them absolute protection against wiretaps. And, no doubt, governments from Syria to Singapore will react poorly to this idea. Inevitably, though, nothing can be done: given good speech recognition and voice-synthesis algorithms running on either end of a connection, the bandwidth required by a phone conversation can be shrunk to a few hundred baud or less, and the signal carrying the communication can be hidden in the faintest trickle of line noise … “What can they do? Maybe they’ll have to make peace.”
Predictor: Hapgood, Fred
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Fred Hapgood covers the issues surrounding Internet telephony. Hapgood writes: ”It seems likely that in a year, anybody is going to be able to buy a machine that with a minimum of configuring will give them absolute protection against wiretaps. And, no doubt, governments from Syria to Singapore will react poorly to this idea. Inevitably, though, nothing can be done: given good speech recognition and voice-synthesis algorithms running on either end of a connection, the bandwidth required by a phone conversation can be shrunk to a few hundred baud or less, and the signal carrying the communication can be hidden in the faintest trickle of line noise. Pessimists, in the interim, might feel this gives governments license to act stupidly in their continuing war against the Internet. But there are optimists, too. I asked Elon Ganor, president of VocalTec, how he thought the Israeli government would react to his company’s technology expanding throughout the West Bank. ‘What can they do?’ he said. ‘Maybe they’ll have to make peace.'”
Biography:Fred Hapgood took on the role of moderator of the Nanosystems Interest Group at MIT and wrote a number of articles for Wired and other tech publications of the early 1990s. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Security/Encryption
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: IPhone: Will Telephony on the Net Bring the Telcos to Their Knees? Or Will it Allow Them to Take Over the Internet? (And, Oh, Yes, It’s Damn Hard to Tap)
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/iphone_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney