To appreciate tomorrow’s multimedia networks, don’t look to the Bob Metcalfes, Ted Nelsons, and Vint Cerfs for ideas and inspiration. Those techno-wonks won’t set the agenda; the Paleys, Sarnoffs, and Disneys of the world will. The economics of advertising, promotion, and sponsorship – more than the technologies of teraflops, bandwidth, and GUI – will shape the virtual realities we may soon inhabit. Wherever there are audiences, there will be advertisers. As media evolve, so do audiences. Time and geography – more than human nature – separate the captive crowds at the Roman Colosseum from user lists on the Internet.
Predictor: Schrage, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article about advertising in the digital age for Wired magazine, Michael Schrage, an MIT Media Lab fellow and columnist for Adweek magazine, writes:”To appreciate tomorrow’s multimedia networks, don’t look to the Bob Metcalfes, Ted Nelsons, and Vint Cerfs for ideas and inspiration. Those techno-wonks won’t set the agenda; the Paleys, Sarnoffs, and Disneys of the world will. The economics of advertising, promotion, and sponsorship – more than the technologies of teraflops, bandwidth, and GUI – will shape the virtual realities we may soon inhabit. Wherever there are audiences, there will be advertisers. As media evolve, so do audiences. Time and geography – more than human nature – separate the captive crowds at the Roman Colosseum from user lists on the Internet.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Advertising/PR
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Is Advertising Dead? Adviruses, digimercials and memegraphics: The Future of Advertising is the Future of Media
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.02/advertising_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney