Is Internet the Iway [information highway]? No. Iways will be multimedia, not ASCII-bound like the TCP/IP Internet. The Internet can carry video over TCP/IP, sure, just like dogs can walk on their hind legs. TCP/IP zealots are saying that ATM is fine as long as it carries TCP/IP, but that’s getting old. Where are the next-generation cell-based protocols, operating systems, and applications needed to exploit ATM so the Internet can go multimedia? TCP/IP’s recently announced that next generation, if ever implemented, will turn out be too little too late.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for InfoWorld, Internet pioneer and Ethernet creator Bob Metcalfe writes: ”Is Internet the Iway [information highway]? No. Iways will be multimedia, not ASCII-bound like the TCP/IP Internet. The Internet can carry video over TCP/IP, sure, just like dogs can walk on their hind legs. TCP/IP zealots are saying that ATM is fine as long as it carries TCP/IP, but that’s getting old. Where are the next-generation cell-based protocols, operating systems, and applications needed to exploit ATM so the Internet can go multimedia? TCP/IP’s recently announced that next generation, if ever implemented, will turn out be too little too late.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: October 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Protocols
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: Iway Frenzy Reaches Summit; Is the Next Phase All Downhill?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?Did=000000000020419&Fmt=3&Deli=1&Mtd=1&Idx=1&Sid=2&RQT=309
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pinkerton, Bradley Steven