Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

The administration is trying to impose Clipper on us by manipulating market forces. By purchasing massive numbers of Clipper devices, they intend to induce an economy of scale which will make them cheap while the export embargo renders all competition either expensive or nonexistent. We have to use the market to fight back. While it’s unlikely that they’ll back down on Clipper deployment, the Electronic Frontier Foundation believes that with sufficient public involvement, we can get Congress to eliminate the export embargo.

Predictor: Barlow, John Perry

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, John Perry Barlow, a co-founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, writes about the U.S. government and its proposed “Clipper” encryption system: ”The administration is trying to impose Clipper on us by manipulating market forces. By purchasing massive numbers of Clipper devices, they intend to induce an economy of scale which will make them cheap while the export embargo renders all competition either expensive or nonexistent. We have to use the market to fight back. While it’s unlikely that they’ll back down on Clipper deployment, the Electronic Frontier Foundation believes that with sufficient public involvement, we can get Congress to eliminate the export embargo. Rep. Maria Cantwell, D-Washington, has a bill (H.R. 3627) before the Economic Policy, Trade, and Environment Subcommittee of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs that would do exactly that. She will need a lot of help from the public. They may not care much about your privacy in D.C., but they still care about your vote. Please signal your support of H.R. 3627, either by writing her directly or e-mailing her at cantwell@eff.org. Messages sent to that address will be printed out and delivered to her office. In the subject header of your message, please include the words “support HR 3627.” In the body of your message, express your reasons for supporting the bill. You may also express your sentiments to Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Indiana, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs chair, by e-mailing hamilton@eff.org.”

Biography:

John Perry Barlow helped found the Electronic Frontier Foundation in 1990 with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members Mitch Kapor and John Gilmore in direct response to a threat to free speech. Barlow’s was one of the loudest voices in the battle to keep the Internet unfettered while still encouraging that it become a tool available to everyone. (Advocate/Voice of the People.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Jackboots on the Infobahn: Clipper is a Last-Ditch Attempt By the United States, the Last Great Power From the Old Industrial Era, to Establish Imperial Control Over Cyberspace

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/privacy.barlow_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney