They must realize that they have to cooperate more intensively than before: The stakes are extremely large; there is too much to learn and events are moving too rapidly; the resources and degree of stakeholder coordination involved are both very high.
Predictor: Engelbart, Douglas
Prediction, in context:In a 1990 article presented at the Conference on Computer-Supported Cooperative Work, Douglas Engelbart makes the following statements: ”User organizations must realize that they can’t just sit back and wait for the standards groups and computer vendors to deliver this, because there hasn’t yet been enough orientation or application experience in this area. It seems necessary for the larger user organizations to take responsibility, to become pro-active – e.g., with exploratory pilots, active development of associated knowledge processes, and cooperative requirements definition – and then show the vendors that there is a sizable market for this. But they must also realize that it isn’t just a matter of specifying, procuring, and installing the resulting system – they have to learn how to employ it effectively in this extremely complex environment. And they must realize that they have to cooperate more intensively than before: The stakes are extremely large; there is too much to learn and events are moving too rapidly; the resources and degree of stakeholder coordination involved are both very high.”
Biography:Douglas Engelbart, the inventor of the computer mouse, spent 40 years predicting, designing and implementing the future of organizational computing. In 1962, while at the Stanford Research Institute, he produced the paper “Augmenting Human Intellect: A Conceptual Framework,” from which came the concepts of augmenting human intellect, improvement infrastructure, co-evolution of artifacts with social-cultural language-practices and bootstrapping. His Augmentation Research Center developed an array of important human-computer interface solutions, including hypermedia. In 1989 he co-founded the Bootstrap Institute, a non-profit organization “in a quest to form strategic alliances aimed at improving organizations and society at large.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: June 1, 1990
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Proceedings of the Conference on Computer-Supported Cooperative Work
Title, headline, chapter name: Knowledge-Domain Interoperability and an Open Hyperdocument System
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.bootstrap.org/augment/AUGMENT/132082.html#6
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garber, Adam