In every industry – from retailing to insurance – the key impact of the computer-networking revolution is to collapse the costs of distribution and remove the middlemen … Anyone with access to the information highway will be able to distribute a film at a tiny fraction of current costs. Moreover, webs of glass and light will free the producer from the burden of creating a product that can attract miscellaneous audiences to theaters. Instead producers will be able to reach equally large but more specialized audiences dispersed around the globe. Rather than making lowest-common-denominator appeals to the masses, filmmakers will be able to appeal to the special interests, ambitions, and curiosities of individuals anywhere, anytime.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In an excerpt from his 1994 book “Life After Television,” George Gilder addresses the future, criticizing the network approach that uses the ideas of television for its basis:”In every industry – from retailing to insurance – the key impact of the computer-networking revolution is to collapse the costs of distribution and remove the middlemen. In an information industry such as the movie business, distribution costs will predictably plummet. Anyone with access to the information highway will be able to distribute a film at a tiny fraction of current costs. Moreover, webs of glass and light will free the producer from the burden of creating a product that can attract miscellaneous audiences to theaters. Instead producers will be able to reach equally large but more specialized audiences dispersed around the globe. Rather than making lowest-common-denominator appeals to the masses, filmmakers will be able to appeal to the special interests, ambitions, and curiosities of individuals anywhere, anytime.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: TV/Films/Video
Name of publication: Life After Television
Title, headline, chapter name: Life After Television
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.moliere.byu.edu/digital/life_tv.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney