The central processing units of 16 Cray YMP supercomputers, once costing collectively some $320 million, will be manufacturable for under $100 on a single microchip. Such a silicon sliver will contain approximately one billion transistors, compared to some 20 million transistors in currently leading-edge devices … The four-kilohertz telephone lines to America’s homes and offices will explode into some 25 thousand billions of possible hertz of fiber optics … Television and telephone systems – optimized for a world in which spectrum or bandwidth was scarce – are utterly unsuited for a world in which bandwidth is abundant.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In an excerpt from his 1994 book “Life After Television,” George Gilder addresses the future: ”Early in the next decade, the central processing units of 16 Cray YMP supercomputers, once costing collectively some $320 million, will be manufacturable for under $100 on a single microchip. Such a silicon sliver will contain approximately one billion transistors, compared to some 20 million transistors in currently leading-edge devices. Meanwhile, the four-kilohertz telephone lines to America’s homes and offices will explode into some 25 thousand billions of possible hertz of fiber optics. Twenty-five thousand gigahertz is the intrinsic capacity of every fiber thread: enough communications power to hold all the phone calls in America on the peak moment of Mother’s Day. All these developments converge in one key fact of life, and death, for telecommunications in the 1990s. Television and telephone systems – optimized for a world in which spectrum or bandwidth was scarce – are utterly unsuited for a world in which bandwidth is abundant.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Life After Television
Title, headline, chapter name: Life After Television
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.moliere.byu.edu/digital/life_tv.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney