The prediction, in brief:

At a typical large site, a central staff obtains Internet service via a “fat pipe” and distributes it to internal users via campus network facilities … These same functions will be required to support small Internet users, and analogous centralized organizations will be needed to provide these functions … At a minimum, such an organization would maintain an Internet connection, 24-hour staffing by an average of two people, sufficient computer equipment to provide reliable 24-hour server capabilities, and various basic information services … A rough estimate for these costs is $85,000 per month, or $17 per user at a level of 5000 users.

Predictor: Fidelman, Miles

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Models for the Internet Local Loop” by Miles Fidelman, president of the Center for Civic Networking, a non-profit organization dedicated to the application of information infrastructure to community and economic development. He writes:”At a typical large site, a central staff obtains Internet service via a ‘fat pipe’ and distributes it to internal users via campus network facilities … These same functions will be required to support small Internet users, and analogous centralized organizations will be needed to provide these functions … At a minimum, such an organization would maintain an Internet connection, 24-hour staffing by an average of two people, sufficient computer equipment to provide reliable 24-hour server capabilities, and various basic information services … A rough estimate for these costs is $85,000 per month, or $17 per user at a level of 5000 users; this includes all the basic costs of operating a business. Targeting a somewhat arbitrary end-user price of $75 per month and a 30 percent gross margin ($22.50 per user per month) leaves $35.50 per user per month to cover local loop access.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Internet Service Providers

Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Models for the Internet Local Loop

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 227, 228

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne