In the future complex programs such as large databases will be virtual-reality cities which the user will move through to find information. “I believe in that not just because I think it’s a cool idea. It’s because I think that is the method of managing complicated things that people evolved to be good at.”
Predictor: Lanier, Jaron
Prediction, in context:In a July 1995 article for The Times-Picayune, Dennis Persica interviews virtual reality scientist Jaron Lanier at the Computer Associates World ’95 conference. Persica writes:”Lanier, 35, is sometimes called the father of virtual reality, the technology that allows users to enter a computerized world that responds to their every movement. That’s a false claim of paternity; the technology was already in use for training pilots and military people by the time Lanier was born. Lanier can lay claim to inventing the term. But like most buzzwords, ‘virtual reality’ has come to be applied to a number of things … ‘It’s pretty easy to change the design of the computer, but you can’t really do too much with people,’ he said. ‘People are pretty much the way they are.’ Lanier thinks virtual reality eventually will be the basis for an interface that will be easy to use because it more closely resembles the world in which people live. He uses the analogy of someone who leaves the city she grew up in, but returns five years later. In a matter of days, she starts to remember directions, street names, transit schedules … ‘We evolved learning environments; that’s what our ancestors were up to.’ As a result, Lanier thinks that in the future complex programs such as large databases will be virtual-reality cities which the user will move through to find information. ‘I believe in that not just because I think it’s a cool idea,’ he said. ‘It’s because I think that is the method of managing complicated things that people evolved to be good at.”
Biography:Jaron Lanier was a pioneer of virtual reality and founder and former CEO of VPL. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 21, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Virtual Reality
Name of publication: Times-Picayune
Title, headline, chapter name: Mr. Virtual: Computer Guru Who Coined Popular Phrase Rides Futuristic; Wave to N.O. Convention Site
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6b928abf4260c0e1ddd2b0818d3e870b&_docnum=4&wchp=dGLbVzb-lSlzV&_md5=625e2fed5696920ba86269f676a838d0
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lightburn, Ellie