Virtually no change will occur in the type of lines by 2000. A negligible number of homes will have been wired with fiber. For cable, digital will be used on some channels to deliver bits to the settop. This will only be available in half of the current homes.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “The Interactive Home – By the end of the decade, what kind of lines will run into the typical U.S. home: copper, coaxial, fiber, other?” A: “GORDON BELL: Virtually no change will occur in the type of lines by 2000. A negligible number of homes will have been wired with fiber. For cable, digital will be used on some channels to deliver bits to the settop. This will only be available in half of the current homes.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: All of the above, in great profusion. In addition, radio waves will envelop the home and satellites will look down wistfully in hopes of business.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: There will be different kinds of physical wires. It’s not important what the wire will be. Some people will still have copper, but there will be little new twisted-pair. The new stuff will be fiber and coaxial.” A: “JEF RASKIN: Any bidirectional channel of sufficient capacity looks pretty much the same to the user. We will see an eclectic mix and they will become increasingly interconnected. The big growth area will be in wireless, and fiber optics will not go into a majority of homes.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: I really don’t know or care. I care what the bandwidth delivery is, how switchable the lines are and how open the architectures are.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney