[The technological advancements that will have the biggest impact on business, and the home by 2000 will be,] Radical scenario [for business]: an all-pervasive ATM network that will include an interface to radio and various cable networks. Home: Settop computers that link to TV sets and get the noncomputer people linked for communication, education, games, etc., whether they want it or not. This will move us from a current “plug-and-pray” computer to one that can order and install its own software and can be maintained remotely.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What technological advancement will have the biggest impact on business? 0n the home?” A: “GORDON BELL: Business: The Internet! This will create new businesses, restructure buyer-seller relationships, etc. Radical scenario: an all-pervasive ATM network that will include an interface to radio and various cable networks. Home: Settop computers that link to TV sets and get the noncomputer people linked for communication, education, games, etc., whether they want it or not. This will move us from a current ‘plug-and-pray’ computer to one that can order and install its own software and can be maintained remotely.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: For business, electronic commerce enabled by pervasive, reliable and secure computer networking. For the home, video on demand.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: Business: the information highway. Business has been experiencing Moore’s law, and it will start to hold for communications. Connectivity is going to change very dramatically. Home: same answer. The home has had high-bandwidth one-way (TV) and low-bandwidth two-way (telephone) communication. But six years from now the home will have the ability to get interactivity on high bandwidth.” A: “JEF RASKIN: The answer will be the same for both – the nearly universal availability of electronic funds transfer.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: The networking of the country, both wired and wireless.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney