High-speed networking is the key enabler for virtually all future applications. Being wired, being able to make arbitrarily large computers from in situ computers. Being able to communicate anywhere without limits, including video for any purpose.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “If you had $50 million to invest in one area of research today. what would it be? Why would you choose this area? What would you hope to achieve?” A: “GORDON BELL: A worldwide digital dial tone that operates at video rates, enabling networking for an ever-present, high-bandwidth, low-latency network. High-speed networking is the key enabler for virtually all future applications. Being wired, being able to make arbitrarily large computers from in situ computers. Being able to communicate anywhere without limits, including video for any purpose.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: This is close to home, because I do have funds of this sort in my company, but I imagine our criteria for investing them are different. To answer your question, let me say that I just want to do the best for the world in general. So I would want to do research on interface between people and information. This would include information navigation, indexing, intelligent agents, knowbots, surrogates, information filters, image analysis – stuff like that.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: I’d ask for more, first of all. I would spend it on developing software to support all this connectivity and increasing computing power-applications, content. There’s a ton of basic work that needs to be done in that.” A: JEF RASKIN: Nonmechanical (no rotating parts) volumetric data storage. It will bring orders-of-magnitude greater storage capacities and an order-of-magnitude speed increase needed to handle the increasing amounts of data, especially for storage of graphics, that individuals will have come to expect.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: Technologies that help information flow seamlessly across heterogenous networks and systems.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney