[In 2000,] communication access lines will still be owned by the telcos and cable TV companies. There is an outside chance that the electric utilities will get into the business with their own network, but this doesn’t seem rational from the point of view of the consumer.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What kind of company will own the various lines: electric power, telco, cable, other [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: RBOCs are likely to be going after corporate data business because it’s really lucrative, unregulated, a mess, and the customers are tired of building and operating expensive, unreliable data networks. Cable companies will make the transition to digital and they will be able to use a TC (television computer) for interactive use, including the Internet and being a PC and game computer.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: The communication access lines will still be owned by the telcos and cable TV companies. There is an outside chance that the electric utilities will get into the business with their own network, but this doesn’t seem rational from the point of view of the consumer.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: Many companies will own the lines. This is like saying, when the auto was invented, ‘Who is going to be the winner among the carriage makers,’ People who provide you with information utility service – you won’t call them a telco or cable company. They’re going to be an information utility company.” A: “JEF RASKIN: Power companies won’t have communication lines. Telco, cable and special niche services will. What customers will most care about is whether the services are easy to use and that they are transparently connected.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: Telephone companies are in the best position to own the lines, as well as some variant of cable companies – but probably not the same cable companies as today. I see no indication that power companies will get into this market.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Service Providers
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney