Electricity was first billed as a dedicated lighting system. We don’t think of it as a dedicated lighting system anymore. It’s a general-purpose utility. You plug in all kinds of things. It will be the same for the information lines [in 2000] – your home-security system, PC, intelligent television will all be plugged in.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “What will the average home have hooked up to these [network] lines [by the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: Phone: same as today (phone, videophone, fax, answering machine, computer, security and more protection including video monitoring, back channel for cable if cable isn’t two-way or if you use broadcast to get video). Phone lines (e.g., ADSL) carrying cable: very small number will be in use. Cable: the television computer linked to cable and capable of connecting to Internet via phone links, if necessary. Video on demand, in the form of a ‘virtual VCR’ or hypertext-linked video, won’t be used extensively in the home within five years.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: Probably a settop box supercomputer. From there to computers, games, televisions, home controllers, videotelephones, etc. Mainly, though, television sets for conventional entertainment and computers for everything else, including unconventional entertainment.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: A wide variety of things. Anybody who believes there’s only one kind of box at the end is very wrong. Electricity was first billed as a dedicated lighting system. We don’t think of it as a dedicated lighting system anymore. It’s a general-purpose utility. You plug in all kinds of things. It will be the same for the information lines – your home security system, PC, intelligent television will all be plugged in.” A: “JEF RASKIN: TV, digital audio, phones, computers, government services (perhaps one or two areas will have electronic voting and routine communications and government payments over electronic channels), special-purpose dedicated devices.” A: “JOHN WARNOCK: We’ll continue to have televisions, but they won’t be the primary interactive device. Interactivity is a singular activity, not a group activity. Computers will be the primary interactive device. While there will be many new single purpose information devices with computing power built into them, there will continue to be a multipurpose information machine that has a single user interface; call it a PC.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney